mike[space] dot net

The big day has finally arrived. After what feels like an entire lifetime of speculation as to whether America is ready for its first female president, or its first black president, or its first (in 8 years) intelligent president, we are finally, finally at the big day where America decides. It's the day where the world will take a collective deep breath and hold it in - hoping and praying that Obama gets in.

It's a very strange time. I guess all times are strange in one way or another - there's always something going on that makes life feel like we're in the middle of something significant. Only historians will really be able to tell us if we are or not, and that opinion will change over time regardless. But it does feel like there's some big world changing stuff going on right now. There's the climate change debate, coinciding quite nicely with rising concern about dwindling supplies of fossil fuels in the face of dramatic increases in demand. There's the increasingly global nature of society itself, with wider communication between people of all backgrounds and opinions, and of course the inter-connectedness of markets etc. And this of course all hooks into the issues that arise from the clashes of different cultures - religious and political.

In the past 8 years, there's been a general sense that America has been approaching a lot of these issues counter-productively. It's clear that economically, the policies of de-regulation have totally blown up in our faces. America has played a big part in this, with their sub-prime infection spreading across the global markets. It's been extraordinary to see bankers begging for government hand outs, whilst at the same time still managing to argue against regulation, and how markets work best when Government stays out of the way. Frankly, the economic failures are reason enough for a change in party at the top.

And then there's the "War on Terror", this wholly artificial effort to group all people who disagree with the status quo into one easily understandable enemy of the people. The idea that we are in a permanent state of war that necessitates the destruction of all the values that we are supposed to be defending. This insidious policy has come from America and has been embraced by Governments around the world, providing succour to shitty Governments, corruption to what could have been decent Governments, and distracting from the bigger issues like how the fuck we are supposed to manage a planet with a growing population and a shrinking set of resources. The blame for this can be squarely placed at the feet of the Bush administration, and their singular failure to engage with the real issues, instead using it as an excuse to throw the extraordinary weight of their military around like a five year old throwing a tantrum. Only with death and destruction, instead of a a juice stain on the wall.

And what about climate change. I think there's two ways of looking at this problem. You can take the Bush approach of saying nah its all bollox, until we're all drowning under rising sea levels, we aren't going to change a bloody thing. Or we can try and change our approach to energy generation, and stop polluting the planet. If we take the first approach, it's possible that all these scientists will be proven wrong and everything will be fine. But we'll still run out of oil, and need to come up with a new way of generating power. Or, we can do it now, and mitigate the risk that actually, maybe, the climate change scientists are right. Whatever happens, we need to stop using oil. We can either wring the planet dry, or we can actually demonstrate the benefits of self-awareness, and change our approach before we're forced to. And another thing is - if America falls into line, everyone else will, and the risk of competitive disadvantage will be reduced.

Of course, all this being said, I don't think that Obama is going to suddenly change everything. He's almost certainly going to be a disappointment, given the level of expectation and hope that is being pinned on him. *But* there's a symbolism to him getting in which is more powerful than any particular policy he can introduce. The rest of the world wants an America that is engaged with it, and respects it. And there's absolutely no sense that we'll get that from McCain, but maybe, just maybe, we will from Obama.

If he gets in, Obama will probably be America's Tony Blair. He'll start strong, surfing a wave of optimism and trust. And gradually this will wane, but hopefully he'll get enough done that a couple of fundamental aspects of America will be changed for the better. And of course, he isn't going to get dragged into a war that his country doesn't want. Hopefully.

So unsurprisingly, this left leaning wooly liberal wants to see Obama get into power. It won't change the world overnight, but it might just help steer us in a slightly better direction.